From Macro to Micro: Large Exporters Coping with Common Shocks

PRESENTA: Juan Carluccio (Banque de France y Universidad de Surrey)

Abstract

Idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations. Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993-2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters’ higher loadings on common shocks (iii) stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) this greater sensitivity is explained by a higher elasticity to common demand shocks, not by different exposure to global value chain shocks.

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